The Impact of Doubled Urea Prices

 What happens to your bottom line when urea hits $1,600/t? We ran the numbers so you don't have to guess. 

 This replicated small-plot trial tested partial and full replacement of synthetic nitrogen with Green Lightning at varying timings and rates. The results speak for themselves and they look even better when urea prices climb. 

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2025 Nytro Ag | Green Lightning Wheat Trial

Lakeland, AB, Canada | AAC Brandon
 

Results with 2025 prices:

  • Dark Green - Full Green Lightning
  • Light Green - 50/50 Urea/Green Lightning
  • White - Urea 
  • Red - No Urea No Green Lightning
2025

Prices used:

  • Urea: A$850/tonne
  • Wheat: A$510/tonne
  • GLN: A$0.03/L (running cost — see note below) 
 
 At A$850/t urea, our top-performing Green Lightning treatments matched or beat the full conventional program on nitrogen input cost. 
 
 

Results with 2026 prices speculated:

2026
Prices Speculated:

Urea: A$1,600/tonne (over $1,800 in some regions, under $1400 in others)
Wheat: A$420/tonne (current market)
Green Lightning: A$0.03/L  
 
 When urea doubles to A$1,600/t, the rankings shift dramatically. Every treatment using 100% Green Lightning moves into the top 5. The Full Conventional Control (previously a reliable mid-table performer) drops to last place with a net return $350/ha lower than the leading Green Lightning treatment. 

 **What the A$0.03/L includes. The 3c per litre is the running cost of the machine — electricity and water filters. It does not include the machine itself. Financed over a typical 5-year term, capital repayments add roughly 20–25c per litre while payments are being made. The treatment rankings on this page compare nitrogen input cost only and do not include machine capital. Your figure will differ with term, rate, deposit and how much PAW you make. 
 

Current urea prises shift the economics dramatically. Farmers also need to consider the possibility of no supply later in the season.


What These Results Show. 

  • Green Lightning Nitrogen delivered the same yields as the conventional program while using significantly lower nitrogen costs.
  • When urea prices double to A$1,600/t, the economic ranking shifts dramatically.
  • Every 100% Green Lightning treatment moves into the top 5.
  • The full conventional urea program drops from a reliable mid-table performer to last place, with a net return approximately A$350/ha lower than the leading GLN treatment.

Scope of These Results These results are from one replicated small-plot trial (Lakeland, Alberta, 2025) on AAC Brandon wheat. They demonstrate economic performance under the trial conditions but do not guarantee results across all soil types, weather conditions, or management practices. Residual soil nitrogen and site-specific factors were not isolated.

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This discussion assesses whether Green Lightning fits your current nitrogen program, cropping system, and logistics.